1 Game Profile

1.1 Estimated Outcomes on BGG

This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.

Published	ID	Name	Type	UserRatings	Average	GeekRating	Weight
2022	350316	Wayfarers of the South Tigris	Current	44	8.38	5.55	3.56
			Estimated	500	7.45	5.92	2.84

To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.

1.2 Game Description

Description
Wayfarers of the South Tigris is set during the height of the Abbasid Caliphate, circa 820 AD. As brave explorers, cartographers and astronomers, players set off from Baghdad to map the surrounding land, waterways, and heavens above. Players must carefully manage their caravan of workers and equipment, while reporting back regularly to journal their findings at the House of Wisdom. Will you succeed in impressing the Caliph, or lose your way and succumb to the wilderness? The aim of Wayfarers of the South Tigris is to be the player with the most victory points (VP) at the game's end. Points are primarily gained by mapping the land, water, and sky. Players can also gain points from upgrading their caravans, by gaining inspiration from nobles, and by influencing the three guilds of science, trade and exploration. As they make discoveries, players will want to quickly journal their progress. The game ends once one player’s marker has reached the far right column of the journal track. —description from the publisher

1.3 Game Information

Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.

For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/350316

1.4 Explaining Predictions

For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.

2 Finding Similar Games

What games are similar to Wayfarers of the South Tigris? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to Wayfarers of the South Tigris. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.

This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).

Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.

2.1 Most Similar Games

The table below displays games with the most similar data to Wayfarers of the South Tigris. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2022	350316	Wayfarers of the South Tigris	1.00	5.55	8.38	2.84	44
1	2020	282954	Paris	0.98	6.41	7.32	2.77	1,827
2	2015	174660	New York 1901	0.92	6.50	6.82	2.05	5,839
3	1991	104	Extrablatt	0.92	5.69	6.99	2.90	260
4	2018	244114	Yellow & Yangtze	0.92	6.73	7.89	3.14	1,877
5	2006	25674	Khronos	0.91	5.91	6.32	3.56	1,806
6	2016	191876	Ulm	0.90	6.47	7.04	2.71	3,033
7	2008	9616	Horus	0.90	5.57	5.86	2.20	445
8	2014	140101	Fantasy Frontier	0.89	5.60	6.35	2.50	256
9	2014	166226	The Staufer Dynasty	0.89	6.43	7.15	2.98	2,212
10	2020	300001	Renature	0.89	6.29	7.27	2.21	1,456
11	2013	136440	Canterbury	0.88	5.88	6.94	3.09	633
12	2016	205078	Barcelona: The Rose of Fire	0.88	5.61	6.43	3.00	285
13	1998	9	El Caballero	0.88	5.92	6.45	3.19	1,409
14	1998	3	Samurai	0.88	7.24	7.46	2.48	15,372
15	2019	275067	Key Market (Second Edition)	0.88	5.79	7.43	3.20	305
16	2015	163976	Exoplanets	0.88	5.81	6.56	2.36	785
17	2016	188314	Topoum	0.88	5.97	7.27	2.46	678
18	2010	78733	Key Market	0.88	6.06	7.40	3.51	713
19	2017	217466	Mafiozoo	0.88	5.70	6.82	2.33	344
20	2011	102610	Shitenno	0.88	5.75	6.74	2.76	431
21	2001	1334	Entdecker: Exploring New Horizons	0.87	6.01	6.50	2.44	1,969
22	2018	195194	Horizons	0.87	5.84	6.82	2.65	648
23	2005	19526	Elasund: The First City	0.87	6.21	6.61	2.73	3,251
24	1996	200	Entdecker	0.87	5.91	6.43	2.24	1,447
25	2014	163798	Nuevo Mundo	0.86	5.56	7.41	2.17	72

Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.

2.2 Most Similar, Highly Rated Games

What games are similar to Wayfarers of the South Tigris while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Score	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2022	350316	Wayfarers of the South Tigris	5.55	1.00	5.55	8.38	2.84	44
1	1998	3	Samurai	6.39	0.88	7.24	7.46	2.48	15,372
2	2020	282954	Paris	6.26	0.98	6.41	7.32	2.77	1,827
3	2018	244114	Yellow & Yangtze	6.19	0.92	6.73	7.89	3.14	1,877
4	2011	104006	Village	6.16	0.84	7.34	7.51	3.07	21,492
5	2015	174660	New York 1901	6.00	0.92	6.50	6.82	2.05	5,839
6	2017	227789	Heaven & Ale	5.98	0.84	7.15	7.57	3.23	7,362
7	2016	191876	Ulm	5.85	0.90	6.47	7.04	2.71	3,033
8	2009	39938	Carson City	5.83	0.85	6.89	7.24	3.18	6,934
9	2014	166226	The Staufer Dynasty	5.70	0.89	6.43	7.15	2.98	2,212
10	2018	250458	Gùgōng	5.59	0.79	7.09	7.49	3.10	7,374
11	2020	300001	Renature	5.57	0.89	6.29	7.27	2.21	1,456
12	2012	129948	The Palaces of Carrara	5.52	0.82	6.69	7.16	2.61	4,383
13	2017	227515	Riverboat	5.45	0.83	6.60	7.47	2.90	2,261
14	2005	19526	Elasund: The First City	5.39	0.87	6.21	6.61	2.73	3,251
15	2002	4099	Keythedral	5.39	0.83	6.48	7.05	2.86	2,987
16	1997	66	Löwenherz	5.37	0.84	6.39	7.03	2.93	2,484
17	2006	25674	Khronos	5.36	0.91	5.91	6.32	3.56	1,806
18	2015	154086	Gold West	5.34	0.81	6.63	7.34	2.46	2,761
19	2010	78733	Key Market	5.34	0.88	6.06	7.40	3.51	713
20	2006	21441	Mykerinos	5.34	0.83	6.43	6.85	2.56	3,898
21	2020	301255	Whistle Mountain	5.34	0.80	6.68	7.77	2.98	1,959
22	2017	163642	Chimera Station	5.32	0.81	6.54	7.30	3.15	2,448
23	2014	165986	Royals	5.32	0.82	6.47	7.17	2.24	2,490
24	2016	134157	Guilds of London	5.31	0.85	6.23	6.84	3.06	2,139
25	2016	188314	Topoum	5.27	0.88	5.97	7.27	2.46	678

2.3 Why Are Games Considered Similar?

I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.

2.3.1 Plotting All Games

The following plot shows every game on BGG plotted on the first two principal components of variation. I then highlight where the selected game and its nearest neighbors fall on these first two components.

2.3.2 Game Profiles

Similarity scores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.

2.3.3 Examining Components

What are these components? The following plot shows which features contribute the most to each component.

Published	ID	Name	Publisher(s)	Designer(s)	Artist(s)	Categories	Families	Mechanics
2022	350316	Wayfarers of the South Tigris	Garphill Games	Shem Phillips	Mihajlo Dimitrievski	Arabian	Admin: Upcoming Releases	Area Majority / Influence
			Lord of Boards	S J Macdonald		Exploration	Cities: Baghdad (Iraq)	Set Collection
			Mosaico Jogos			Medieval	Crowdfunding: Kickstarter	Tile Placement
							Digital Implementations: TableTop Simulator Mod (TTS)	Track Movement
							Mechanism: Tableau Building	Worker Placement with Dice Workers
								Worker Placement, Different Worker Types

Individual Game Analysis